Shades of Tom Clancy. The Russian Navy. The Cold War. The Cuban missile crisis. Putin. Ukraine. Sochi. Russian invasion. All running through my head this afternoon. Déjà vu, etc.
Reports vary, but it appears the Russians may have invaded Crimea, the southern peninsula of Ukraine, an independent, autonomous republic. Airports were seized, TV stations surrounded, telephone and cable communications cut. By nameless, masked men in army fatigues, who arrived by helicopter. No identifying marks on their uniforms, their equipment, their aircraft. And the latest development: Russian tanks appearing in Ukrainian territory.
The Russians announced a few days ago that they would be conducting military exercises in the area. Ukraine is calling it an invasion. The U.S. government is calling it an “uncontested arrival.” What on earth is Vladimir Putin doing? Did he think we wouldn’t notice? Did he think the lack of obvious markings would fool anyone? Does he really think he can get away with a takeover? (Who’s going to stop him?) Did he think making everyone all warm and fuzzy at the Sochi Olympics would lull the world into inattention?
Does he think so little of Obama’s resolve? Well, he has reason. After that red line in Syria that … wasn’t. And our withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. And more downsizing of our armed forces. What are we going to do, send drones into Ukraine?
Geographically, one can understand Russia’s interest in Crimea and the port of Sevastopol — home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Navy’s only warm water port, with access to the Mediterranean and the rest of the world (see map below). Many of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking citizens — Russian Navy personnel, retirees, and their descendants — live in Crimea. Russia has a long history here.
At least one report, however, says the port is no longer that important to Russia, that there are only a few dozen outdated ships based there, and that in fact the Russians have been planning to redeploy the force to Novorossiysk, just up the coast from Sochi.
The whole thing, with its Cold War overtones (including a Russian warship that made a surprise stop in Havana this week), is disturbing. It looks like Russia is trying to reassert itself in a Ukraine in turmoil, make sure the country doesn’t turn to Europe and the West, and secure the port of Sevastopol, which it leases from Ukraine. Or perhaps it’s all just a matter of Russian pride. Or Putin’s pride. And other than threatening not to show up for the Sochi G8 summit in June, we have no leverage in the region. We’re in no position to tell the Russians to stay out of Ukraine. And we’re in no position to make them stay out.
There don’t seem to be any answers tonight. Just a lot of questions.
And somewhere Tom Clancy is smiling and nodding his head. In his last co-authored novel, Command Authority, published in December, the Russian president, a ruthless former KGB agent, seeking to return Russia to its glory days, invades Ukraine.
Hmm, I wonder if Putin is a Clancy fan …
(Clancy fans might also enjoy Pied Type’s “Becoming Tom Clancy: Letters from Tom.”)
Also on Pied Type:
Déjà vu? Exactly!
For some of us who have lived through the Cold War era and beyond, these moments are more reminiscent of the film “Groundhog Day”. Been there…. done that, only question is, how will this one turn out? As citizens we will simply have to sit helplessly on the sidelines, endure the suspense as the coaches call their plays and wait for the final whistle to blow. It is the same old game, just different players; different coaches. And the world in some cases, holds their collective breaths and hopes upon hope they’re not about to watch the opening quarter of what may ultimately turn out to be the Super Bowl!
I don’t know what Obama had in mind in his statement yesterday. Words alone won’t scare Putin; he’s seen how we operate. I don’t think there’s much we can or should do. It’s not our fight and I certainly don’t want to go back to the years when I drew circles on a map to see if Russian missiles in Cuba could reach my house. No more Super Bowls!
I was in the Air Force stationed at a SAC base in Oklahoma at the time and we were on high alert obviously and our B-52’s were poised and loaded! It was indeed a very, very stressful time.
I lived in Oklahoma City at the time. As I recall, it was right on the edge of the maximum range of missiles fired from Cuba. I lived on the north side of the city and tried to reassure myself that if an attack came, it would be on Tinker AFB (south side of town) and wouldn’t hit me. Small comfort.
This situation seems something like the olympics, a contest of egos and ethnicity, only here, the prize is not a medal but hegemony. It makes it easy to see how just such passions have led to bloody wars in the past, but what is really at stake here for the United States? Nothing to spill blood over that I can see. Russia here is moved by the same kind of concerns that we had in the Monroe Doctrine.
Given the good summation in this post, I think the best outcome would be for Ukraine to split into two halves along the lines of your language map, PT. I suspect that the US state department would approve of that, but can’t say so publicly – Russia would, correctly, label that interference and perhaps a causus-beli.
Agreed. It’s not something to spill American blood over. If anyone directly confronts the Russians, it should be the Ukrainians themselves (a very one-sided battle), perhaps with help from Europe. Personally I think the Russians should let Ukraine decide its own future but it looks like they’ve already decided to intervene. Why the Russians want to recall their ambassador to the U.S., I don’t know. Perhaps a response to Obama’s threat yesterday? Worrisome.
A lot of questions indeed PT. I suspect Clancy would be smiling.
Makes me wonder what happened in his book, when the Russians invaded Ukraine.